{"id":1940,"date":"2020-04-07T23:29:12","date_gmt":"2020-04-07T21:29:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reclaimfinance.org\/site\/?page_id=1940"},"modified":"2022-09-27T15:15:41","modified_gmt":"2022-09-27T13:15:41","slug":"iae-scenarios-3-degrees","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/reclaimfinance.org\/site\/en\/iae-scenarios-3-degrees\/","title":{"rendered":"The IEA is locking us in to +3\u00baC scenario"},"content":{"rendered":"

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THE IEA IS LOCKING US IN TO +3\u00baC GLOBAL WARMING<\/h1><\/span>

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The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is the leading international body for assessing climate change and determining the sector policies needed to limit global warming to 1.5\u00baC above pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n

But although the IPCC establishes realistic transition scenarios, most political and financial decisions regarding energy are made based on scenarios published by the IEA (International Energy Agency) \u2014the reference institution for projecting national and international supply and energy demand.<\/p>\n

Not all IEA scenarios have the same influence on decision-making processes. Only those put forward by the World Energy Outlook (WEO), IEA\u2019s annual energy Bible, play a leading role in guiding investors. Today, however, the IEA\u2019s World Energy Outlook mainly assumes a business-as-usual scenario. Such a scenario would lead to +3\u00b0C warming. By doing so, the IEA is guiding us on a path that we know we must be avoided.<\/p>\n

Reclaim Finance calls on political and financial institutions to demand the IEA develop and integrate a 1.5\u00b0C scenario in the WEO that includes a precautionary approach to negative emissions technologies. In the meantime, Reclaim Finance calls on financial institutions to select the most realistic and ambitious 1.5\u00b0C scenarios of the IPCC.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>

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The IEA aims for 3\u00b0C warming<\/div><\/h1><\/span>
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The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming \u201cwell below 2\u00b0C and as close as possible to 1.5\u00b0C.\u201d The IPCC\u2019s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 \u00b0C stresses the importance of aiming for this stricter threshold to avoid the worst social and environmental consequences of climate change.<\/p>\n

Limiting global warming to 1.5\u00baC above pre-industrial levels means halving global emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero by 2050 at the latest; this would only give us a 50% chance of succeeding.<\/p>\n

Yet, rather than targeting a 1.5\u00b0C trajectory, the IEA World Energy Outlook focuses on a scenario called STEPS\u2014Stated Policies Scenario (formerly the New Policies Scenario NPS). This scenario would cause a +3\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels. Though the IEA (International Energy Agency) also offers a marginally better scenario, the SDS\u2014Sustainable Development Scenario\u2014this also fails to limit global warming to 1.5\u00baC<\/p>\n<\/div>

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