{"id":34643,"date":"2024-11-19T10:44:22","date_gmt":"2024-11-19T09:44:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reclaimfinance.org\/site\/?page_id=34643"},"modified":"2024-11-21T17:41:40","modified_gmt":"2024-11-21T16:41:40","slug":"climate-scenarios-picking-a-safe-path-to-a-sustainable-future","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/reclaimfinance.org\/site\/en\/climate-scenarios-picking-a-safe-path-to-a-sustainable-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate Scenarios: Picking a Safe Path to a Sustainable Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Climate Scenarios: Picking a Safe Path to a Sustainable Future<\/h1><\/span>
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\u201cClimate scenarios\u201d show pathways corresponding to various global warming outcomes. Like all Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), they are mathematical computer models that bring together information and insights from different academic disciplines into a single framework to study complex issues. They integrate a wide range of hypotheses and possible circumstances and have their own modelling specificities, meaning that a potentially infinite number of climate scenarios can be produced.<\/p>\n

Climate scenarios are inherently limited tools based on hypotheses that may prove inaccurate and cannot precisely predict the effects of climate change. While they are not crystal balls, they could be useful depictions of possible futures that offer us a chance to avoid the worst of the climate crisis and guide us on a path to climate mitigation. That is, however, only when they are chosen carefully.<\/p>\n<\/div>

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Aligning with climate goals: picking a scenario<\/h2><\/span>
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To select a scenario, one can start by looking at its issuer. Indeed, many bodies have produced climate scenarios now – from international organizations to companies and consultancies – and for some this can be a way to justify their own business strategies. For example, when a company like Shell<\/a><\/span> or TotalEnergies publishes scenarios which show that fossil fuel production can continue at its current pace before declining gradually, the company is defending its plans to build new production infrastructures by painting them as compatible with mitigation efforts. Here, a simple rule would be to avoid using scenarios produced by entities with an obvious conflict of interest, such as oil and gas companies, and to opt for scenarios from independent bodies with recognized expertise such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, such a basic rule is not enough to guarantee robust scenarios. In fact, even apparently independent and reputable providers can produce scenarios that rely on dangerous assumptions. Therefore, we need to use a two-step process:<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>