{"id":19644,"date":"2022-03-14T15:31:59","date_gmt":"2022-03-14T14:31:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reclaimfinance.org\/site\/?p=19644"},"modified":"2023-02-08T15:26:33","modified_gmt":"2023-02-08T14:26:33","slug":"totalenergies-bp-shell-et-eni-depasseront-leur-budget-carbone-dici-2035","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reclaimfinance.org\/site\/2022\/03\/14\/totalenergies-bp-shell-et-eni-depasseront-leur-budget-carbone-dici-2035\/","title":{"rendered":"TotalEnergies, BP, Shell et ENI d\u00e9passeront leur budget carbone d\u2019ici 2035"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alors que les grandes entreprises p\u00e9tro-gazi\u00e8res europ\u00e9ennes sont souvent consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme les bonnes \u00e9l\u00e8ves du secteur en mati\u00e8re climatique, Reclaim Finance publie une nouvelle analyse (1) d\u00e9montrant qu\u2019elles n\u2019ont toujours pas v\u00e9ritablement enclench\u00e9 un processus de transition. Toutes continuent notamment d\u2019investir dans l\u2019ouverture de nouveaux projets d\u2019hydrocarbures ; toutes auront consomm\u00e9 l\u2019int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 de leur budget carbone 2050 respectif entre 2033 et 2035. Il est temps pour les banques, assureurs et investisseurs de se saisir des r\u00e9sultats de cette recherche et d’exiger de ces entreprises l\u2019adoption d\u2019un vrai plan climat.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>

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Les 6 majors auront d\u00e9pass\u00e9 leur budget carbone d\u2019ici 2035 au plus tard<\/h1><\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>

Les six principales entreprises p\u00e9troli\u00e8res et gazi\u00e8res europ\u00e9ennes \u2013 TotalEnergies, Shell, BP, Eni, Equinor et Repsol \u2013 sont souvent consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme les \u201cbest in class\u201d du secteur des \u00e9nergies fossiles. Et pourtant, l’analyse de leurs plans de d\u00e9veloppement et de leurs objectifs de d\u00e9carbonation des six principales entreprises p\u00e9troli\u00e8res et gazi\u00e8res europ\u00e9ennes d\u00e9montre le manque de cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 de leurs plans dit de transition ou plan climat.<\/p>\n

En se fondant sur les objectifs et donn\u00e9es des entreprises, nous constatons que d\u2019ici \u00e0 2050, ces six majors auront chacune \u00e9mis 32% \u00e0 79% de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre en exc\u00e8s par rapport \u00e0 ce qu\u2019il leur est permis dans un sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 1,5\u00b0C (2). Etant donn\u00e9 que leur strat\u00e9gie \u00e0 court et moyen terme reste tr\u00e8s centr\u00e9e sur le p\u00e9trole et le gaz et conduit \u00e0 une accumulation rapide de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre dans l\u2019atmosph\u00e8re, elles auront d\u00e9pass\u00e9 leur budget carbone d\u2019ici \u00e0 2035 au plus tard.<\/p>\n<\/div>

\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>

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Cap sur l\u2019expansion p\u00e9tro-gazi\u00e8re<\/h1><\/span>
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Malgr\u00e9 les r\u00e9cents engagements d’atteindre la neutralit\u00e9 carbone d’ici 2050 pris par les 6 majors (3), elles d\u00e9passent toutes leur budget carbone \u00e0 court et moyen terme. Toutes continuent de d\u00e9velopper de nouveaux projets de production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re et gazi\u00e8re, \u00e0 contre-courant de la ligne rouge trac\u00e9e par le sc\u00e9nario Net Z\u00e9ro de l’AIE (4) de la fin de l’expansion p\u00e9tro-gazi\u00e8re. TotalEnergies, Shell et BP font m\u00eame partie des 10 plus importants expansionnistes mondiaux selon la Global Oil and Gas Exit List (5).<\/p>\n

Aucun virage strat\u00e9gique en vue pour aucune des majors. Loin de devenir verts, les investissements \u00e0 court terme restent orient\u00e9s \u00e0 plus de 60% vers les \u00e9nergies fossiles. Sans surprise donc, en 2030 les renouvelables repr\u00e9senteront moins d’un quart de leur mix \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. Les projections de TotalEnergies r\u00e9v\u00e8lent une hausse massive de 42,4% dans la production d’hydrocarbures entre 2016 et 2030, qui prend le pas sur la croissance pr\u00e9vue en mati\u00e8re d’\u00e9nergies renouvelables (moins de 15% du mix \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique d’ici 2030) (6).<\/p>\n<\/div>

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La sortie de la Russie\u2026 un tournant pour les majors ?<\/h1><\/span>
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En r\u00e9action \u00e0 la guerre de Poutine en Ukraine, plusieurs grandes entreprises p\u00e9tro-gazi\u00e8res ont annonc\u00e9 sortir de leurs op\u00e9rations en Russie, notamment BP, ExxonMobil, Shell, Equinor et Eni (7). Ces annonces modifient la structure du march\u00e9 p\u00e9trolier et gazier. BP \u00e9tait particuli\u00e8rement expos\u00e9 \u00e0 travers sa participation de 19,75% dans Rosneft qui repr\u00e9sentait un tiers de sa production de p\u00e9trole et de gaz en 2021 (8). A moins qu\u2019il ne cherche \u00e0 compenser son d\u00e9part par le d\u00e9veloppement de nouveaux actifs p\u00e9tro-gaziers ailleurs, BP pourrait atteindre son objectif de baisse de la production d’\u00e9nergies fossiles de 40% d’ici 2030 compar\u00e9 \u00e0 2019 (9). A la suite de la vente de ses actifs russes, la production de Shell pourrait baisser de 5,6% d’ici 2024 au lieu de stagner (10).<\/p>\n

TotalEnergies, \u00e9galement tr\u00e8s expos\u00e9 au p\u00e9trole et gaz russe qui repr\u00e9sentent 16,3% de sa production mondiale, a annonc\u00e9 ne plus apporter de capital \u00e0 de nouveaux projets en Russie (11) mais refuse de se retirer des 4 projets en op\u00e9ration et en d\u00e9veloppement (12). Le groupe fran\u00e7ais refuse aussi de c\u00e9der ses 19,4% du capital de Novatek, deuxi\u00e8me producteur de gaz naturel en Russie. TotalEnergies et Novatek ont notamment des parts dans le projet d\u2019expansion de gaz naturel liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9 Arctic LNG 2 (13). Alors que de nombreux acteurs financiers prennent des mesures contre les entreprises russes, plus de 75 ONG les appellent aussi \u00e0 ne plus accorder de nouveaux services financiers \u00e0 TotalEnergies tant que celle-ci ne s\u2019est pas retir\u00e9e de Russie (14).<\/p>\n<\/div>

Les \u00e9nergies fossiles sont \u00e0 l\u2019origine de nombreux d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres, en g\u00e9n\u00e9rant des conflits et des guerres et en aggravant le r\u00e9chauffement climatique. Les strat\u00e9gies climat des plus grandes entreprises p\u00e9tro-gazi\u00e8res europ\u00e9ennes restent tr\u00e8s loin d\u2019\u00eatre align\u00e9es avec un sc\u00e9nario +1,5\u00b0C. Si les majors europ\u00e9ennes continuent d\u2019aggraver la situation en continuant d\u2019investir massivement dans les \u00e9nergies fossiles, elles d\u00e9passeront leur budget carbone bien plus t\u00f4t et beaucoup plus. Un grand nombre d\u2019institutions financi\u00e8res, banques, assureurs et investisseurs, ont r\u00e9cemment pris des engagements climat ou ont rejoint les alliances net z\u00e9ro. Elles ne peuvent continuer \u00e0 ignorer l\u2019impact de l\u2019expansion p\u00e9tro-gazi\u00e8re et des plans des majors qui vont \u00e0 l\u2019encontre de leurs engagements.<\/span>
\n<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>

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Notes<\/u> :<\/b><\/p>\n

1. Reclaim Finance met \u00e0 disposition des banques, investisseurs et assureurs un Tableur Excel<\/u> <\/a>rassemblant les donn\u00e9es indispensables pour d\u00e9crypter les strat\u00e9gies des six entreprises \u00e0 l\u2019aune des objectifs climatiques. Ce tableur s\u2019accompagne de briefings analysant plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment les strat\u00e9gies et ambitions climat de TotalEnergies<\/a>, Shell<\/a>, BP<\/a><\/u>, Eni<\/u><\/a>. L’\u00e9tude peut \u00eatre retrouv\u00e9e sur la page Major Failure<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n

2. En s\u2019appuyant sur les donn\u00e9es et les projections des six entreprises, Reclaim Finance a calcul\u00e9 le volume cumulatif d\u2019\u00e9missions de GES \u00e9mis par l\u2019entreprise d\u2019ici \u00e0 2050. Ces chiffres ont ensuite \u00e9t\u00e9 compar\u00e9s avec le budget carbone allou\u00e9 \u00e0 chacune des six entreprises dans un sc\u00e9nario 1,5\u00b0C (issu des mod\u00e9lisations de Transition Pathway Initiative \u00e0 partir du sc\u00e9nario net z\u00e9ro de l\u2019Agence Internationale de l\u2019Energie et des \u00e9missions de m\u00e9thane du rapport 1,5\u00b0C du GIEC. TPI consid\u00e8re donc que sur une p\u00e9riode de 100 ans, le m\u00e9thane a un potentiel de r\u00e9chauffement global de 28). Pour plus de d\u00e9tail, la m\u00e9thodologie est t\u00e9l\u00e9chargeable ici<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n

3.D\u00e9clarations des entreprises: BP<\/u><\/a>, Eni<\/u><\/a>, Equinor<\/u><\/a>, Repsol<\/u><\/a>, Shell<\/u><\/a>, TotalEnergies<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n

4. Agence Internationale de l’Energie, Net Zero by 2050<\/u><\/a>, Mai 2021.<\/p>\n

5. Urgewald, Global Oil and Gas Exit List<\/a><\/u>, 2021.<\/p>\n

6. En savoir plus dans notre analyse sur TotalEnergies,<\/u><\/a> publi\u00e9e en Mars 2022.<\/p>\n

7. D\u00e9clarations des entreprises BP<\/a>, ExxonMobil<\/a>, Shell<\/a>, Equinor <\/a>and Eni<\/a><\/u> en r\u00e9action \u00e0 la guerre de Poutine en Ukraine<\/p>\n

8. La cible de BP es indiqu\u00e9e dans son Rapport Annuel<\/a>,<\/u> 2020. Calculs r\u00e9alis\u00e9s par Reclaim Finance avec les donn\u00e9es de Rystad Ucube Energy. Plus d’informations disponibles sur la production de p\u00e9trole et de gaz ainsi que sur le d\u00e9passement du budget carbone de BP dans notre company briefing on BP<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n

9. BP, Strategy for decade of delivery towards net zero ambition<\/u><\/a>, 2020.<\/p>\n

10. Calculs r\u00e9alis\u00e9s avec les donn\u00e9es de Rystad Ucube Energy. Plus d’informations disponibles sur la production de p\u00e9trole et de gaz ainsi que sur le d\u00e9passement du budget carbone de Shell dans notre company briefing on Shell.<\/u><\/a><\/p>\n

11. Reuters, TotalEnergies exclut de nouveaux projets en Russie<\/span><\/a>, 2022.<\/p>\n

12. TotalEnergies d\u00e9tient 19,4% de Novatek et des int\u00e9r\u00eats dans les actifs Yamal LNG<\/a>, Kharyaga PSA<\/a>, Terneftegaz CJSC<\/a> en op\u00e9ration et l’actif Arctic LNG 2<\/a> en d\u00e9veloppement. Au total, 16,3% de sa production 2021 \u00e9tait d’origine russe.<\/p>\n

13. TotalEnergies, Russie : lancement du projet majeur Arctic LNG 2<\/u><\/a>, 2019.<\/p>\n

14. La finance appel\u00e9e \u00e0 ne plus soutenir les \u00e9nergies fossiles en Russie<\/u><\/a>,<\/u> mars 2022.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":19617,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"acteurs_financiers":[],"thematique":[2415],"webinar_type":[],"programme":[],"class_list":["post-19644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","thematique-energies-fossiles"],"yoast_head":"\nTotalEnergies, BP, Shell et ENI d\u00e9passeront leur budget carbone d\u2019ici 2035 - Reclaim Finance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By 2035 at the latest, European oil and gas companies will have consumed their remaining 1.5\u00b0C carbon budget.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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